Good afternoon, my degenerate crypto gambling friends. The Supreme Court has struck down Trump’s tariffs. This wasn’t a surprise. Many expected it, and I’m guessing Trump and his team expected it too and likely have alternative plans. Interestingly, the market doesn’t seem to care much. Bitcoin and crypto are up around 2% today. So let’s break down what’s going on.

The Supreme Court Tariff Ruling

The tariffs were reportedly imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The issue wasn’t necessarily the tariffs themselves, but whether the justification — claiming a national emergency based on trade deficits — was constitutionally valid. The Supreme Court had previously ruled that trade deficits do not constitute a national emergency. The ruling suggests the president may have exceeded executive authority, potentially rendering the tariffs unconstitutional under that framework. Now the big questions are:
  • Will unclear trade policy create uncertainty for businesses?
  • Will companies struggle to forecast import costs?
  • Will trade negotiations reopen globally?
  • Will alternative tariff mechanisms be introduced?
Despite all that, markets didn’t dump as some predicted. In fact, they moved up slightly. It’s important to understand tariffs weren’t just about generating revenue. They were also tools for addressing trade imbalances, reshoring manufacturing, and exerting geopolitical leverage. Whether one agrees with the strategy or not, tariffs were being used as economic pressure tools — to encourage domestic production and influence international negotiations. The Supreme Court’s role is to interpret constitutionality, not economic strategy. So regardless of political preference, this ruling was about legal authority.

GDP Miss and Inflation Concerns

Recent data showed GDP growth at 1.4% instead of the expected 3%. Meanwhile, Core PCE inflation came in hotter than forecast at 3%, after hitting 3.1% in January. That combination raises stagflation concerns: slower growth with persistent inflation. If inflation remains elevated, the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer. Higher rates generally reduce liquidity, which can weigh on risk assets like crypto. Markets tend to prefer lower rates and easier monetary conditions.

Coinbase Launches 3.5% USDC Rewards

Coinbase announced 3.5% rewards on USDC for Coinbase One members. Essentially, users can earn yield simply by holding stablecoins. Stablecoins have gained more regulatory clarity recently, which reduces perceived systemic risk compared to prior cycles. However, custodial risk remains — account security, platform policies, and counterparty exposure still matter. Personally, I’m not a fan of Coinbase’s high trading fees. Friends of mine have paid excessive commissions there. But for users seeking convenience and yield, it’s an option.

Solana vs. Ethereum

There are claims circulating that Solana now does 2x Ethereum’s volume on certain time frames, something that seemed impossible in 2023. Whether the exact multiples are accurate or not, Solana’s growth has been undeniable. Solana has consistently captured attention, liquidity, and developer activity. In this cycle, it has outperformed many peers. If you believe in high-performance chains and user adoption, Solana has been one of the strongest plays.

Retail Panic vs. Long-Term Holders

There’s a pattern every cycle:
  • Retail sees -50%, panic sells, and declares crypto dead.
  • Long-term holders quietly accumulate.
I’m not quiet about it. I openly say I’m buying. I entered in 2021, was up significantly, didn’t sell, and round-tripped gains. I traded too much. I made mistakes. Then in early 2024, I was up even more — and again didn’t exit at peak levels. Now prices are lower, but I have conviction in certain large-cap altcoins like Solana and others near the top. I’m sticking with them. I’m not jumping around anymore. If you don’t have conviction, every drawdown feels like proof you were wrong.

Is Crypto Still Just Speculation?

Many people still view crypto as scams, gambling, meme coins, and speculation. But at the same time, we’ve seen:
  • Institutional ETFs
  • Stablecoin legislation progress
  • On-chain yield products
  • Government-level discussions
  • Major exchanges expanding services
Adoption is closer than ever to becoming normalized infrastructure. The disconnect between price sentiment and structural progress is striking.

Crypto Winter — Again?

Some say we’re in crypto winter. Others say it’s just a pause. Bitcoin has survived brutal winters in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Each time, it felt unbearable. Each time, it eventually recovered. Peter Schiff warns that if Bitcoin breaks 50,000, it could fall to 20,000. That would represent a massive drawdown. While anything is possible, today’s market structure includes broader institutional participation and significantly larger capital bases. If Bitcoin ever dropped to 20,000 again, many long-term believers would likely view it as a generational opportunity.

Banking System Criticism and Crypto’s Appeal

Banks lend out the majority of deposited funds and operate under fractional reserve systems. When failures occur, governments often step in with bailouts. That dynamic is one reason many people were drawn to crypto in the first place. Crypto offers an alternative — self-custody, transparency, programmable money. Whether it fully replaces traditional finance or simply integrates with it remains to be seen.

Timing the Top Is Nearly Impossible

Everyone says they’ll sell the top next time. The problem is nobody knows when the top is. Markets don’t repeat perfectly. They rhyme. Patterns shift. Cycles compress or extend. In the last rally, I had a target. It got halfway there, and then momentum vanished. That’s crypto. The only practical solution is partial profit-taking with predefined targets — and sticking to them.

Final Thoughts

Tariffs may shift strategy. Inflation remains a concern. Rates may stay elevated. Solana is gaining dominance. Stablecoin yield products are expanding. Sentiment is divided. Through all of it, conviction remains the difference-maker. Have a great weekend. Enjoy your family. Relax. I’ll see you on Monday.