Hello, my degenerate crypto friends.

We had a huge dump over the weekend, and I took advantage of it. Well, kind of. First, I sold Gala and Sonic. I’d been accumulating those for two or three years. At one point, I had some pretty good gains on them. But I didn’t sell back then. Instead, they just kept going down… and down… and down. Eventually, I had to say to myself, “I don’t know if these are actually coming back.”

So I sold them and moved the money into Polygon. Polygon is one I’m fairly confident will recover. In fact, it already turned out to be a good move because Polygon jumped around 10% today.

All three of those tokens were very cheap, but Polygon has much stronger metrics. I can realistically see Polygon surviving and going back up in the future. Sonic, on the other hand—I’m not so sure. I love it, especially with Fantom, and I like Gala too, but we need a market run for those. We need a big altcoin run. We need a gaming narrative run for Gala to really come back.

Altcoins, Fundamentals, and Market Cycles

They were both extremely cheap and had gone down so much. It’s a shame, but I said, “Look, I’m going to sell these and put the money into another token that’s also down bad.” That way, I still have the possibility of getting those gains back.

The market is going to drop as far as Bitcoin has to drop. We don’t know how far Bitcoin is going to go down or how long it’s going to take. All the adoption, tokenization, banks, stablecoins—none of that is affecting the market in a bullish way right now. The market just doesn’t care.

This is simply the cycle. The market has to go down for some reason. Bitcoin has to go down. All the good fundamentals are for another time.

Bitcoin Price Levels and Historical Context

Right now, I’m just holding on to coins with good fundamentals and hoping they come back. The ones with the best fundamentals have held up the most—BNB, Solana, and Ethereum, although Ethereum isn’t doing great right now.

The way I see it, Bitcoin could go down to a previous cycle’s high, maybe around $60,000, maybe even somewhere in the low $50,000s. It’s hard to imagine it going much lower than that.

Historically, in Bitcoin bear markets—2015, 2019, and 2022—the 200-week moving average marked the price bottom. That level currently sits around $57,926. If Bitcoin drops another $20,000 from here, altcoins are just going to keep getting destroyed.

Altcoins Have No Bottom

Altcoins don’t really have a bottom. They just keep melting away. That’s why you accumulate when they’re cheap and hope you’re in the right one. If it comes back, you make a lot of money.

If Bitcoin goes to $60,000 or $50,000, that’s probably when it’s safer to really stock up on altcoins. But nobody knows. Nobody knows what’s going to happen.

Regulation, Politics, and Global Crypto News

Coin Bureau reported that the White House is calling crypto firms and banks to the table to discuss the crypto market structure bill. This White House is very serious about getting crypto regulated and moving the industry forward.

There’s also news that a United Arab Emirates sheikh bought a secret stake in Trump crypto. Trump has been making allies in the Middle East, focusing more on prosperity instead of endless conflict.

Turkmenistan has legalized crypto mining and exchanges to boost its economy. That’s another country getting with the program.

In the UK, crypto users may be forced to share account details with tax officials. If they start demanding wallet addresses, I’d honestly consider leaving.

Institutions, Bitcoin, and Ethereum Accumulation

Bitmine Immersion Technologies announced ETH holdings reaching 4.285 million tokens. It’s basically like the MicroStrategy of Ethereum. It’s bullish, but I don’t love seeing one company control that much.

Binance completed its first conversion of the SAFU fund, converting $100 million in stablecoins into Bitcoin. That’s bullish for Bitcoin.

Michael Saylor’s company acquired 855 BTC for $75.3 million at around $87,974 per Bitcoin. Strategy just keeps acquiring.

Scams, Security, and Hard Lessons

An Argentine crypto fugitive with $56 million in Bitcoin was arrested in Venezuela after the collapse of Generation Zoe. There are so many scams out there.

Never give your crypto to anyone promising returns. Be extremely careful. I have a friend who bought Bitcoin early, had a serious amount, and lost all of it by trusting the wrong platform.

AI, Jobs, and the Future of Money

Lark Davis said it’s estimated that around 90 million jobs could be lost to AI by 2030. Maybe new jobs get created, but far fewer. This could be the perfect crisis to introduce CBDCs—government-controlled money with invisible chains.

This is why Bitcoin exists. The AI situation is concerning, especially if you’re a parent thinking about your kids’ future.

Markets, Metals, and Institutional Influence

Precious metals recently saw a liquidity crisis that wiped out trillions. Crypto and metals dumped together.

We hit $69,420 without BlackRock ETFs or treasury companies. Now we have them, and we’re only at $74,000. That doesn’t make sense to a lot of people.

It feels like things were better before institutions got involved. Now the industry feels dependent on government decisions and big money.

Solana, Portfolio Allocation, and Buying Fear

Solana at $100 is tempting. My average buy is around $24, so it’s still expensive for me. Solana makes up about 60% of my portfolio because it performed so well while everything else collapsed.

Chainlink is close to my break-even. People keep saying $68,000 Bitcoin isn’t cheap and cheaper prices are coming—but when those prices come, you’ll be too afraid to buy.

Long-Term Conviction in Crypto

Alex Becker said he doesn’t know what happens in the short term, but the entire financial world is pivoting to crypto in the long term. I agree 100%.

Everything is happening with crypto—banks, institutions, stablecoins—and prices are still in the gutter. Eventually, this will turn around. You just need to be in the right coins.

Not financial advice, but keep dollar-cost averaging into good projects. Crypto is the future in many ways—unless quantum computing wipes everything out, which would kill everything, not just crypto.

See you guys tomorrow. Bye.