Not a whole lot happening in the market. Other than that, it’s crashing and burning. Bitcoin is down about 5.7% again today, and basically every coin is getting smashed. Honestly, I was totally expecting this.

Bitcoin is sitting around $74,000 right now, and I really think it’s going to keep falling for a bit longer. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see it go down into the low $60,000s, maybe even under $60,000, or possibly into the $50,000s. I just feel like the cycle needs to play out. People need to see Bitcoin go down before things can start going up again. It just has to happen.

Because of that, I’m expecting altcoins to keep crashing too. Right now, I only hold six altcoins. These are my highest conviction coins, the ones I genuinely believe will come back. They might not hit new all-time highs, but I’m confident they’ll get back into solid profit if I keep adding to them.

I’m not really worried. I just let it play out. I keep buying the coins I believe have a real future and real usage.

Crypto IPOs and Wall Street Adoption

One interesting thing happening right now is crypto companies preparing IPOs on Wall Street. That’s objectively bullish long term. It means more real-world adoption.

Kraken, the exchange, is going public. I’ve only used Kraken a couple of times. Personally, I mostly use Binance. KuCoin has been my second exchange, and MEXC my third. Kraken hasn’t really been my go-to, but it’s still a major name.

We also have Consensus, which is a big crypto infrastructure company, although I don’t know much about them. BitGo is involved in financial services and DeFi. Animoca Brands is launching too, which I actually find surprising because crypto gaming is completely in the gutter right now. I dumped my last gaming coin, Gala, the other day. Until we get a real altcoin run, gaming crypto is just dead.

Ledger going public is no surprise, and BitThumb, a major crypto financial services company from South Korea, is also in the mix. Overall, more crypto companies hitting Wall Street is a positive sign.

Crypto Winter Is Real

Matt Hogan says crypto winter started in January 2025 and that we’re now in a full-blown crypto winter. Honestly, that feels accurate.

Bitcoin is down about 39% from its all-time high in October. Ethereum is down around 53%, and many altcoins are down even more. Ethereum is starting to look more attractive around $2,100. If it ever goes down to $1,000, I’ll definitely start buying.

I’ve always hated Ethereum. I really have. But now I’m thinking maybe I should buy it because of real-world adoption. Still, I look at Ethereum and think, do I want to buy that, or do I just buy more Solana or more Chainlink? I honestly don’t know.

The truth is, a lot of altcoins never recovered from the last bear market. Some did—Solana, BNB, XRP—but many just kept going down and never came back. If a coin didn’t go up in the last market, especially late 2023 and early 2024, I think you should just get rid of it.

If a coin hasn’t survived four, five, or six years and isn’t still in the top 50 or top 100, it’s probably going to be forgotten.

Bitcoin, Wall Street, and Control

There’s this narrative going around that Wall Street will never control Bitcoin. The idea is that Bitcoin isn’t like gold, because gold was stored in banks and central banks. Bitcoin is mostly held by long-term holders, not institutions.

About 70% of Bitcoin is held long term, and only a small portion trades daily. Bitcoin is hoarded. There isn’t enough supply to bail out Wall Street. That said, I don’t fully buy this idea. Wall Street may not control the supply, but they can definitely manipulate the price through buying and selling.

Bitcoin might be permissionless and voluntary, but let’s not pretend big money has no influence.

Altseason Hype vs Reality

Some people are calling for the biggest altseason ever. Others are saying altseason 2026 will melt faces. Personally, I’m skeptical.

I do expect prices to go lower. That’s why I’m just accumulating. I don’t trade in and out. If I start buying and selling constantly, I’ll mess it up. I’ve learned that lesson already.

Until Bitcoin finds its bottom, altcoins are going to keep bleeding. That’s just how it works.

Some Positive and Negative News

Ripple-backed firms have tokenized $280 million worth of diamonds using XRP Ledger technology. That’s actually meaningful real-world adoption, even though I’m usually very critical of XRP.

On the other hand, Vitalik keeps selling Ethereum. He just sold almost $1 million worth of ETH. That really doesn’t inspire confidence. If the founder keeps cashing out, it makes me uneasy.

Galaxy Digital’s head of research says Bitcoin could drop to $56,000 in the coming weeks. Honestly, I’m expecting something like that. A drop into the $50,000s wouldn’t shock me at all.

Stablecoins vs Banks

Stablecoins are starting to seriously threaten banks. Billions are already flowing out of checking accounts into yield-bearing digital dollars. Projections suggest $500 billion to $1.5 trillion could leave banks by 2028.

And honestly, good. Banks take your money, invest it, and give you nothing in return. We’re forced to use them because the system is built that way.

Stablecoins are the middle finger to banks. If banks don’t like it, they should adapt. Offer their own stablecoins and offer yield.

Big Money Is Accumulating

Vanguard just added over 4 million shares of MicroStrategy, bringing their total position to about $3.4 billion. Whales aren’t flinching. They’re accumulating while retail panics.

That’s always how it goes. Big money tries to shake you out so they can take your Bitcoin.

My Personal Experience and Strategy

I’ve round-tripped gains more than once. In 2021, I was up a lot, but not life-changing money. In 2023 and 2024, I was up much more, and then it all came crashing down again.

It’s incredibly hard to know when to sell. I had a plan. If I hit a certain number, I’d sell. The run just ended way faster than I expected.

After the 2021–2022 crash, I kept buying small amounts. Some of those buys worked out, especially Solana. That helped me get into a better position.

Now I’m doing the same thing again. I don’t know where the bottom is. I just keep buying as it goes down.

One important thing I’ve learned is not to buy coins just because they were higher in the past. You have to think about which coins will do well in the future.

Solana came back because it’s a great coin with real adoption. Not every coin does that. The safest bet is always the top coins. Lower risk, less stress.

That’s my two cents for today. I’ll see you tomorrow. Bye.