Bitcoin is down about 4% today. Ethereum is also down around 4%. Solana is down roughly 7.5% and trading under $100. Prices like these are tempting — very tempting — but for now, I’m holding off.

I’ve been buying dips consistently, but at this stage I want to see where Bitcoin actually wants to land. If it drops into the low $60,000s or even the $50,000s, that may finally be the level where the market accepts that the reset is complete. Nobody knows where this goes. That’s just the reality.

Is Bitcoin Really Lacking a Catalyst?

A post circulating from Hunter Horsley claims that Bitcoin currently suffers from a lack of a “shelling point catalyst” — a single event everyone watches that clearly pushes prices higher, like the Bitcoin ETF narrative in 2023.

I completely disagree with this take.

The opposite is happening. We are getting catalyst after catalyst after catalyst:

• Pro-crypto governments and regulation
• The Clarity Act moving forward
• Institutions buying
• Countries buying
• Banks restructuring systems onto blockchain
• Stablecoin adoption
• Tokenization of real-world assets

Despite all of this, prices keep going down.

The conclusion is uncomfortable but simple: the market does not care. The cycle has to run its course. Bitcoin has to go low enough that people psychologically accept a reset. Only then does the market allow itself to go up again.

Until Bitcoin hits that level — whatever it is — altcoins are not coming back in a meaningful way.

Trump, Crypto, and Political Narratives

Eric Doy shared a clip where it stated that the U.S. must lead in crypto or China will. He compared it directly to AI leadership.

Trump is clearly pro-crypto. Whether China would dominate otherwise is debatable, but crypto is emerging technology. Someone will lead it, and it would be foolish not to support it.

Claims that “Trump destroyed crypto” are pure nonsense. Since the day Trump came down the escalator, media narratives have been repeated endlessly until people accept them as truth. It’s manipulation, plain and simple.

You can criticize tariffs. You can criticize meme coins. But in terms of laying the groundwork for crypto’s future, the administration has done more than most people are willing to admit.

Why the Market Ignores Good News

Patrick McHenry suggested a crypto market structure bill could land before Memorial Day, with the Senate potentially acting before Easter.

Personally, I think these delays are intentional. Big players want more time to accumulate Bitcoin, Ethereum, and quality altcoins at lower prices.

Even if the bill passes, I’m not convinced it will suddenly flip the market. When good news doesn’t make prices go up, it tells you something important:

The market is in a bear cycle.

Bad news isn’t really pushing prices down either. Prices are falling simply because participants want to sell until a certain pain threshold is reached.

Where Is the Real Bottom?

Mike Novogratz recently said Bitcoin breaking below $100,000 reset the market, and that $70,000–$100,000 may be the new range.

I disagree slightly. Based on the previous cycle, the $50,000–$70,000 zone feels more realistic. That aligns with prior highs from the last bull market.

Once Bitcoin revisits that area, the market may finally accept a new cycle.

Altcoins Are Cheap — Historically Cheap

For Bitcoin, prices still feel high if your goal is massive percentage gains. But altcoins are another story.

• Ethereum around $2,100 is not bad at all, considering its adoption and real-world use.
• Solana near $93 after trading near $300 — despite heavy real usage.
• Chainlink around $9 with a market cap near $6.5B, while being integrated everywhere.
• Avalanche near $9, close to cycle lows, with strong tokenization and gaming use.
• Sui, Hedera, and other high-quality projects trading at depressed valuations.

These are not vaporware projects. They are being used. That’s why this is a great time to dollar-cost average into quality.

Why Banks Fear Crypto (And Should)

Banks are afraid of crypto because it threatens their core business model — loans, treasuries, and intermediated finance.

But you can’t block innovation.

Taxis couldn’t stop Uber. Hotels couldn’t stop Airbnb. Banks won’t stop crypto.

They either adapt or die. And adaptation ultimately benefits everyday people.

The Energy Feels Gone — And That’s Normal

Ran Neuner said something important: Bitcoin has erased the post-election rally, bounces are weaker, and selling pressure feels structural.

He’s right — but that’s exactly what late-stage bear markets look like.

When builders stop launching projects, when enthusiasm fades quietly, when everything feels pointless — that’s usually near the end.

You don’t launch new projects in this environment. You accumulate. You wait.

Fear, FUD, and the Same Old Stories

Every cycle has narratives designed to scare people into selling:

• Silk Road
• China bans
• ICO collapses
• SEC lawsuits
• FTX
• Now: quantum computing and conspiracy theories

There is always something.

If quantum computing breaks crypto, it breaks everything — banks, governments, and the internet itself. Crypto would be the least of our problems.

Conviction Is What Actually Creates Wealth

Michael Saylor now controls roughly 3% of Bitcoin’s supply. Grant Cardone said it best: never bet against someone who can execute on their plan.

Early Bitcoin buyers weren’t just lucky. They held through brutal drawdowns. They had conviction.

That’s the real question today:

Do you have conviction in the projects you’re buying now?

Final Thoughts: Let the Pain Finish

I believe this Bitcoin bear market is close to the end, but we may still see one last capitulation leg. That’s fine.

Let it happen. Let Bitcoin go as low as it needs to. Reset the cycle completely.

In the meantime:

• Dollar-cost average
• Buy projects with real adoption
• Ignore predictions
• Live your life

Enjoy the present. If the future is better, great. But don’t wait to be happy.

That’s it for today. Have a great evening.